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Texas Redistricting Fallout: Menefee Takes Big Lead in New TX-18 Primary, Garcia Holds Strong in TX-29

Source: Politics – Houston Public Media4 min read

Key Takeaways

  • Texas Republicans conducted a mid-decade redistricting effort, aiming to increase their party's representation in the U.S. House.
  • The U.S. Supreme Court upheld this controversial redistricting plan, solidifying its impact on the 2026 elections.
  • The redistricting fundamentally altered Congressional Districts TX-9, TX-18, and TX-29, forcing incumbent Al Green into a newly drawn district.
  • Current primary polling for TX-18 and TX-29 reflects voter response to these legally sanctioned, redrawn electoral maps.
Alright, let's chat about what's shaking up the Houston political scene, especially after Texas lawmakers messed with the maps. It’s a big deal, and it shows just how much those lines drawn on a map can shift power. This isn't just about who's up or down; it’s about how our voting rights and representation get molded. You might remember Christian Menefee. He’s the newly sworn-in U.S. Rep. for the 18th Congressional District. Well, a fresh poll from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs just dropped, and it says Menefee has opened a huge lead over long-time Congressman Al Green in the upcoming Democratic primary for the newly drawn TX-18. This isn't just a slight edge. It's significant. The numbers are pretty clear. Fifty-two percent of likely Democratic voters in the new 18th District are backing Menefee for the March 3 primary. Compare that to just 28% for Congressman Green. That’s a massive gap. Even in areas Green currently represents in the old 9th Congressional District, Menefee holds a 7-point lead. That’s a flip. Mark Jones, a co-author of the survey from Rice University’s Baker Institute, put it this way: folks like both Menefee and Green. They respect them. But when it's time to choose, a bunch of them are picking Menefee. Jones sees it as a changing of the guard, a new generation stepping up. Menefee is 37; Green is 78. Age might just be a factor here, not because people are upset with Green, but because they feel it’s time for something new. Now, why are these districts all "new" to begin with? This is where the legal stuff gets really interesting for you. Last summer, Texas Republicans pushed through a rare mid-decade redistricting plan. This wasn't just some routine boundary update. It was a calculated political move. Their goal? To grab up to five more seats in the U.S. House. Former President Donald Trump reportedly urged them to do it. This redistricting effort got a nod from the U.S. Supreme Court in December, which basically signed off on the Republican plan. That plan completely changed Congressman Green's old 9th District, turning it from a reliably Democratic area into one that leans Republican. It also packed a lot of the old 9th, including Green's own home, right into the new TX-18. That move forced Green to make a tough choice. He decided to run in the 18th, even though Menefee had just won a special election runoff for that very seat in January, filling the vacancy left by the late U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner. Amanda Edwards, who lost to Menefee in that runoff, has since stopped her primary campaign, but her name is still on the ballot. Jones pointed out that Menefee’s campaigning in the current CD 18 has given him a huge 70% to 13% lead there. That’s what’s making the difference, pulling him way ahead overall. It's not just the 18th District seeing shifts. Over in the redrawn Texas 29th Congressional District, which covers the north side of Houston, U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia looks set to keep her seat. She’s facing challenges from former state Rep. Jarvis Johnson and restaurant owner Robert Slater. The poll shows Garcia at 46%, Johnson at 27%, and Slater at a couple of points, with a good chunk of voters still unsure. The challenge for Jarvis Johnson, Jones noted, is that while Black voters, a big group in CD 29, really like him, he's not doing as well with white and Latino voters. They're sticking with Garcia. Plus, Garcia has endorsements from important groups like the Congressional Black Caucus, which helps her pull in a fair share of the Black vote, too. This whole situation shows you the direct impact of redistricting on who gets to represent us and how. These lines aren't just squiggles on a map; they directly shape our electoral choices and, ultimately, the laws that affect your daily life. Early voting kicks off on Tuesday, February 17th. Make sure your voice counts.